Winning baseball formula created By U.S. scientistDigital Journal #RPG1_RPG2January 29, 2020
A University of Iowa physicist has delivered a mathematical formula that predicts baseball success.
The equation states that a team’s chance at the playoffs lies in their consistency in generating runs.
With the kickoff of Major League Baseball spring training, professional ball clubs may want to re-examine if their team roster can do what University of Iowa physicist, Kerry Whisnant, predicts in his mathematical formula: Be consistent.
The formula , an award finalist at MIT’s Sports Analytics Contest, looked deep into the baseball statistics and generated this equation:
W1/L1 = (RPG1/RPG2)^a (SLG1/SLG2)^b where a = 0.723 (RPG1 + RPG2)^.373 and b = 0.977 (RPG1 + RPG2)^( -.947)
Effectively, scoring the same amount of runs day-to-day in a 162 game season determines a much higher probability of success.
In other words, more games are won if a team is consistently producing runs, as opposed to scoring a lot of runs one day and very few the next.
How can a team be more consistent?
The equation points to having good sluggers on the team.
Slugging is a measure of hitting power by calculating how many bases are safely reached.
According to the formula, a consistent team is one with a higher slugging percentage.
The difference of having a narrow run distribution throughout the season earns a team “two additional wins” at the end of the year and possibly locking a position for the playoffs.
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